Foresight as structured communication and learning processes: Preparing for the future
Jan Oliver Schwarz, Berlin University of the Arts
Organizations are confronted with an increasing complex and dynamic environment, characterized by discontinuities and an uncertain future — a state that is most likely to accelerate. The major task for managers today is to make decisions, formulate strategies and execute strategic management systems in such an environment. It appears obvious that the principal of “predict and prepare” no longer is appropriate for organizations operating in such an environment.
In the past, a variety of concepts were established to detect “weak signals” of change, or trends, in the organizational environment. The goal was to give organizations the chance to react to or act on these developments ahead of time. Further, concepts have been developed to deal or think about the future of an organization and incorporate that anticipated future as such into planning processes. These concepts include futures studies (particularly the scenario technique), strategic issue management or strategic early warning systems, strategic foresight, and, in a broader sense, competitive intelligence.
However, it appears that while being applied in practice, these concepts not only help organizations in dealing with the future, but — in another and most often unintended way — point out the reason while such activities fail and/or are difficult to implement. By discussing the concept of strategic foresight in particular, this paper will analyze what benefits a foresight activity can and cannot achieve. It will also analyze what the organization can realistically expect the benefits and goals of such a process to be. Considering that the future is unknown and unpredictable, particularly in these times of rapid changes, the aim of a foresight activity thus cannot be to predict the future. If it were, a foresight activity would be more likely to increase bind spots and therefore increase the danger of the organization eventually being surprised by the future and consequently unprepared.
Foresight activities should be perceived as a structured communication processes focusing on mental models, blind spots, and knowledge gaps. These processes should trigger discussions about the future and about current events that might have an impact on the future. This process enables an organization to then actually make sense of the environment and look for “weak signals” of change. This implies that these “weak signals”, which can also be perceived as trends, need to be understood in context. It appears to be more relevant to understand from where and how these trends have evolved, instead of asking a question that cannot be answered with certainty or without increasing blind spots: where will a trend go?
If dealing with the future in an organization is perceived more as a learning process than as a prognostic activity, then the organization is able to prepare itself for the unknown, even the unthinkable, in the future. It can prepare, for instance, by creating a “memory of the future”.